Predicting the 2026 World Cup Group Stage - A Monte Carlo Simulation Deep Dive
· 13 min read
Introduction
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the largest in history, featuring 48 teams across 12 groups. I ran a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation — 100,000 iterations — accounting for player injuries, red cards, altitude, and H2H records to predict which teams make it out of the group stage.